Surfaces, Balls and Reserves – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours remaining.
England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.
With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.
It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?
Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.
A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".
When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.
Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.
Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about problem solving.
When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.
If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.
What's going on with the Australian pace attack?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.
Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.
The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.
On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.
Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.
Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.
The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.
The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.
Challenging Openings
Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?
Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.
The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.
Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.
His average increases when the pace increases.
In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.
Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.
It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.
Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.
Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.
Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.
Spin war
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.
During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.
Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.
Recall the potency of fast bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.
During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.
Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.
Favorable Conditions?
The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.
The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.
Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.
The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.
Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.
In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.
The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.
The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.
Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.
The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
