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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.